Monday, 3 November

At 7.00 a.m. I took a car with Shi Shangkuan, Chen Boxiu (陳伯修), Zhang Yukun and Chen Jianyi to leave Dushiqiao for Chungking. At 9.30 I went to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to host Memorial Week service.

Ambassador Gu Weijun cabled on 1 November, reporting his talk with Alexander Cadogan, Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office as follows:

1) Gu Weijun reckoned that with regard to Japan’s southern and northern advancements, Britain and the United States had expressed opposition, but with regard to its invasion of China, they indicated no open opposition. Therefore Japan might invade our Yunnan or Guangxi provinces. He wanted to discuss issuing a warning to Japan in tandem with Britain. Cadogan said that Japan had increased its military strength in northern Vietnam, which seemed to indicate that Japan intended to turn North to invade China. But the amount of military strength added was still insufficient to act. As for the warning, Britain needed to discuss this with the United States first. It was not saying that Britain was hiding behind the United States, the fact now was that the United States should bear the brunt. Given that the United States would work on the plan, no matter to what degree, Britain would follow closely.

2) Cadogan told Gu Weijun that the Soviet Union Ambassador said that only seven to eight divisions of the Soviet Army were transferred westward from Siberia and thirty-seven divisions still remained. Although Japan had increased its troops in Northern Manchuria, they were still no counterpart to the Soviet Army. Also, the weather was now unfavourable for deploying armies, so it was believed that Japan would not launch an immediate attack. It must wait until the Soviet Union could not come down upon them before it dared take action.

3) With regard to the negotiations between Japan and the United States, Japan has not yet formally proposed to the United States to continue with the discussions, and the United States has not revealed the content to Britain. It was inappropriate for Britain to ask for more details. But he knew that with regard to the Far East issues, the United States was not going to easily obtain mutual consent.

4) With regard to the matter that Japan had made requests to the Soviet Union, Cadogan said he hasn’t heard of it. He thought that if Japan thought that the right moment has come there was no need for it to do so. Gu Weijun also reported that when Britain treated the Burmese Prime Minister to a banquet, his Consul secretly told Gu that on the surface Britain served him very well, but as for his request for autonomy after the war, it was still impossible. The British side said that it was preoccupied with the War of Resistance, and the situation in East Asia was complicated, about which it had no time to research. Gu also speculated on the Burmese Prime Minister’s inclinations. If this visit was to no avail, on returning to Burma his attitude towards Britain and China would turn sour.

This morning I received another report from Gu Weijun, saying the Dominions Minister told the reporters his personal opinion was that if Japan invaded the Soviet Union it meant declaring war on Britain. The effort which Gu Weijun put in his work with Britain, as well as his talent and capability, are really something that Hu Shih could not compete with.

Gui Yongqing (桂永清)[1] reported what he saw on his trip to France.

1) As a matter of fact, France was totally occupied. The French army was completely stripped of weapons, German Guard Corps were everywhere, and they were secretly under surveillance. One hundred per cent of local products, military products sent from North Africa, and fifty per cent of materials for daily consumption, were turned over to Germany.

2) Regarding Vietnam, the French thought that no matter which country would secure victory, it ultimately belonged to France. They did not believe Germany would give it to Japan, but they were on alert towards us.

3) There was an increase in the agricultural production in the whole of Europe. If it was allocated in a proper manner, although the people’s living would be hard, there would be no problem of famine.

At noon Minister Guo Taiji formally organised a banquet at the Military Committee for the first Australian Minister to China.

[1] Gui Yongqing (1901-1954) was a graduate of Huangpu Military Academy. He was a senior naval official in the Nationalist Government.