Wednesday, 16 June

In the morning, I paid a return visit to the Yugoslavian Ambassador Simic. The reasons he reckoned Germany did not make a big offensive towards the Soviet Union were as follows.1) The German army in the eastern lines was only 190 divisions, which didn’t reach last year’s number. In the last two years, many elite soldiers have been lost, and the new recruits are not as good as the old ones. 2) From recent reports by the Soviets bombarding the German army, the allocation of German armies drew a long line from East to West. Its rear army is quite far away from those in the front lines. From this he assumed that this was not the pattern for war. The Soviet army has more than 300 divisions. But he thought that as Britain and the United States haven’t opened the second war zone yet, the Soviet Union will not start the offensive. As for Britain and the United States, he reckoned that if they moved their armies beyond the English Channel, they would really fight the Germans. Only when the major forces of both sides fought then would the battle be decisive. It was very likely that British and American armies would land on the West coast of France. Germany also feared this would happen. He personally thought that Germany would soon divert the offensive to Turkey. The reasons were as follows.1) This kept sections of the British and American armies in Turkey, as transportation was easier to Germany but not in the Allies’ case. 2) The Allies should relocate armies from North Africa, then the pressure of invasion on Italy would be lessened. 3) The Italian Fleet was now in the Mediterranean. It not only couldn’t be used, but also it was threatened by Allied air forces. If it could be moved to the Black Sea, it would be not only safer than in the Mediterranean, but could also help Germany in military operations. The defensive power of Turkey was quite insignificant. According to him, there were only 20 to 30 divisions, and their equipment is very poor. Their fighting power is quite weak too. (This was different with the Charge d’Affaires of Turkey in Chongqing. He said there were 800,000 soldiers. But Simic pointed out that those in the Front lines should be 4% of the total population of Turkey.) So the German army will meet no restraint. It was also possible that Germany might move towards Spain, Germany’s aim is to force the Allies to concentrate its fighting power near the Mediterranean coast. The rearguard is long and supplies are difficult. These will be advantageous to the Germans. He also said that a certain important person in Germany told him that Germany originally decided to retreat its main forces back to Germany last year because it still held hopes that it could defeat the Soviet Union with a final strike. Now Germany will retreat from all occupied areas and take away all provisions. When the Allies come to Europe, they might face difficulties.
The British Embassy’s Charge d’Affaires, Crosthwaite, came and said Ambassador Kerr had replied by telegram to my request with regard to Satō’s mission to Moscow. He said Satō definitely came to Moscow because the Japanese had impounded Soviet ships. It happened that the United States sold 15 merchant ships to the Soviet Union, 6 were stopped for inspection, as a result 2 out of the 6 were in custody, so the Soviet Union filed a protest with Japan. With regard to this matter Molotov had informed American Ambassador Standley. I was very grateful that Ambassador Kerr was so helpful. I immediately cabled Vice Minister Wu, and asked him to report to the Generalissimo.
I received a letter from Bingkun, knowing that he left Guangzhouwan with mother for Liuzhou, and lived with Qiongfang and Jinpei. I was deeply relieved. I also received letter from Zhao Ruchang, knowing that Fanny had a lump in her breast in the middle of February. She stayed in Jiangsu hospital and had recovered after medical treatment for about two weeks. Soon Jintu had seizures and she had to accompany her to stay in Jiangsu hospital for 2 to 3 weeks. Because of Jintu’s health problems, Fanny took Jintu to Chongqing in early April to try to change her environment for one or two weeks. As for the newly-born baby, she was chubby and cute. I was quite relieved. Fanny didn’t used to worry. She wasn’t the type of person who could make decisions. Her father was the same. So when she came upon this type of unfortunate situation it had to be very difficult.