Wednesday, 19 July

Fine, sun

I studied Russian in the morning.

At 4.30 in the afternoon, I went to visit the British Military Delegation. First its Head, Burrows, invited us to have afternoon tea, then we were led to the military map room and he talked about the conditions of the various war zones. The main content was as follows.1) In the Eastern war zone. (a) The Soviet army started an offensive from Leningrad. When they reached Vipuri, they stopped firstly because if they went further they would reach the lake area where it was difficult to fight. Secondly their aim was originally to threaten Finland and make it surrender. Even if they could not achieve this aim, it could also make the German army not dare to move their troops in the Northern area. (b) Again they launched an attack at Karelo-Finnish R.S.R. further north. The first aim was to break through the railway line between Murmansk and Leningrad. The second aim was also to threaten Finland, and force the German army in the northern part of Finland not dare to relocate its men. After achieving this aim, the Soviet army halted. (c) The main force of the German army was in the central route. There were 50 divisions in total, and their defence installations were the strongest. The Red Army first attacked Vitebsk, then turned South, North, and once again South, which kept the German army busy in both directions. The Red Army made preparations here for a long time, and concentrated great manpower and materials, so the German army was unable to resist. According to his conversation with a captured army commander of the German army, he asked him about the reasons for the defeat. He replied that the German army did not expect the manpower and resources to be so concentrated and they simply could not resist. On this side, more than 28 divisions of the German army have been destroyed, the rest just escaped and lost fighting power. According to the estimation of General Burrows, the German army had about 10 divisions in Finland, about 20 divisions in the three countries in the Baltic Sea, about 30 divisions in East Prussia, about 50 divisions in the central route, about 50 divisions to the North of the Ukraine and about 50 divisions to the South of the Ukraine and Romania. Red Army strategy seemed to be direct invasion into Prussia. On entering Prussian territory, they might not advance further to the lake area but attack from Warsaw. It seemed to be that the German army just let the Red Army keep moving forward, and they would relocate their troops from the South and North to attack the Red Army from both sides. So the German army did not lose in the war, and the big battle may yet be on the horizon. With regard to the possible retreating line of the German army, the first one was to follow the Nemunas River, but this line seemed to be unable to hold on. The second one should be along Vistuta, but according to the experience of this war, this river is not one which can be held onto for long, therefore the decisive factor is not topography but whether the German side can relocate forces from other war zones as reinforcement. However, according to today’s news, the Red Army has re-launched an attack on the Lvov area which is further South, it is certainly to prevent Germany relocating troops from the South to help those in the North. All in all, the Red Army’s manpower and strength are much better than the German side. The German side has no way to counter. But their morale is still high. The captured German army commander said that although they were defeated in World War II, they would certainly win World War III. 2) With regard to the Italian war zone, he thought the German army would retreat to northern Italy on a line to the East of Pisa. This line is a natural barrier and easy to defend. Now the German army has 25 divisions in Italy, if they retreat to this line, then 15 divisions will be enough, then they could transfer 10 divisions to other war zones. So he personally thought the defeat of the German army in Italy the later the better. 3) In Yugoslavia, Germany has about 14 divisions, and three in Greece. 4) In the West war zone, now Germany has about 20 divisions in Normandy fighting the British and American armies on the Front lines. The rest are on French territory preparing and there should be about 30 divisions, altogether making 50 divisions. There are about ten divisions in Denmark. Probably the Allied Army will not attack Le Harvre because crossing the river is not easy, and there is a river in-between. In the future it would be safer for the Allies Army to push to Paris. If there is to be further advance, they will push forward to the West, so they can occupy Brest, Bordeaux and so on. Firstly they would be able to destroy the German submarine base. Secondly it would be a good harbour here for American transportation, so there would be no need to ship materials to Britain first then re-transport to France. He had also received news recently that Germany had ordered the organisation of British captives in Germany in advance. If there is any incident, Germany has thought how to evacuate them when the Red Army entered Germany. From this we can see the German side has prepared for retreat. He will be back in Britain very soon. Firstly, he will visit the war zones then he will be back in Moscow. In the future, he will tell me the details. I went with Shaozhou, Jingchen and Dequan, and he treated us very well. He answered clearly and straight-forwardly all our queries. We left at 6.00.

The Allied Army in Italy has made progress. Today they have occupied the two towns of Leghorn and Anacona.

I received a telegram from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Minister He reported that the enemy’s army in China has increased to 56 divisions, which is half of its total land force. Also our government’s spokesman said, with regard to Ambassador Wei Daoming’s statement made in San Francisco on 6 July that the issue of French Annam will be settled by the United States in the future, if Wei Daoming really said this it is purely his personal opinion. Wei Daoming is always prudent, but I am really puzzled as to why he has been so careless with his words this time.