Wednesday, 22 October
Ambassador Gu Weijin sent a telegram. He has met with Eden. The main content was as follows:
1) Eden said he had discussed with the Dutch Minister, and they thought likewise that the new Japanese Cabinet must adopt an active policy. The situation in the Far East would become tense, which was certainly not a good omen. But they reckoned that Japan was still undecided whether to take the line of southern or northern advance. Japan was still observing what would happen. So, we could say on the brink of war. Probably it will be decided after maybe three weeks.
2) Gu Weijun asked if Japan was to invade the Soviet Union, how Britain would offer help and what the United States would do. Eden said Britain had only limited strength in the Far East, and militarily speaking Britain could not help the Soviet Union very much. Politically speaking the United States should bear the brunt. Now Britain decided to talk about it with the United States, as the negotiations between the United States and Japan also included issues in Northern Asia. He thought the United States would insist in helping the Soviet Union with materials as its unchanged policy, and would not allow Japan to impede it. Eden thought that a) the bitter winter (in the Soviet Union) was bad for military deployment. b) Although a tiny portion of the Red Army has been transferred to Europe, the Red Army was still strong. c) The war between China and Japan dragged on. For these reasons, Japan might not dare to offend the Soviet Union.
Gu Weijun said: a) Japan has made preparation, b) Japan will wait until Soviet strength in the Far East reduces substantially, and c) to the extent until it took a defensive policy towards China. Only taking Siberia would be sufficient to break the Soviet Union’s resistance policy. Also, Japan could break through Central Asia, which would be bad for Britain and the United States.
So Eden proposed:
1) that the economic sanctions on Japan not be loosened,
2) providing us with plenty of ammunition so that we can counter-oattack in North China, resisting Japan to attack the rear path of the Soviet army from Outer-Mongolia.
3) Britain, the United States, China and the Netherlands should cooperate and stay closer together, so it will make Japan understand that if it attacked the Soviet Union, it would become the enemy of the four countries. This would make Japan hesitate. Eden was quite moved by what Gu Weijun had to say and took hold of a map to study with Gu Weijun.
3) Eden also said that Japan had increased its troops in Annam and also put pressure on Thailand, and seemed to invade from the East, or even invade the Burma Road.
Gu Weijun said that the Japanese navy took a prudent attitude, therefore the policy of southern advancement would be taken after the northern advancement. It should be pending until the German army defeated the Soviets and turned its spear towards the Near East or western advancement to England then Japan would act. At present the southern advancement is to check the British and United States’ navies. Now the war in Europe and the war in Asia are two matters in one. We should have overall planning. As the German issue cannot be quickly solved, the Japanese issue should be thoroughly solved jointly by Britain, the United States, China, the Soviet Union and the Netherlands and so on first, so that Asia and the Pacific can become the rear, and we could fight a dead-or-alive war with Germany and Italy. As there was no worry about the rear, the final victory would be with us. As Japan has the same considerations of interest as Germany, it would be impossible for it to leave the Axis, because the Japanese policy was to extend its territory, which was just like Italy. At the same time, Japan would take advantage of the situation to conquer the acquisitions of Britain, the United States, the Soviet Union and the Netherlands in the Far East. Eden said Japan was undoubtedly a horrible robber, and we should no longer consider giving concessions to it. As for the economic sanctions towards Japan, we could only strengthen them and definitely not loosen them. Now the alliance between Britain, the United States, China and the Netherlands is gradually strengthening, which is a good omen.